By Mufazzal Hossain

Every year when September 11 comes, America remembers the 3000 innocent souls lost on that tragic day. I was only nine years old in 2001. I didn’t know that the world had changed that day. Two months later, my parents were packing our bags to go back to Bangladesh. 

As Gaza is continually being plummeted to the ground into the New Year, that same fear resurfaced with the collective punishment of over 20,000 Palestinians in Gaza by the IDF in response to the unprecedented terrorist attack carried out by Hamas on Southern Israel. Upon witnessing the Biden administration’s tacit approval for the IDF’s disproportionate assault on civilian lives and infrastructure, Muslim leaders from swing states assembled on December 3, 2023, to declare an #AbandonBiden campaign to oust U.S. President Joe Biden from power given their demonstrated ability as a kingmaker in his 2020 election.

 News headlines, college campuses, major corporations and nearly every facet of American life has yet again been swept away in the reactionary rage against a frightening other—again presumed Muslim and from the Middle East—deserving of collective punishment after an atrocity on the American and indeed, greater Western psyche.

Promise of Change & Hope to move Forward

The white man’s “go back to your own country” became my reality. I’m sure there are many more stories like mine. Some moved back home for five years, some for ten, and my family and I moved for approximately fourteen years. Imagine my surprise when we return to New York fourteen years later and hear Donald Trump on TV making Islamophobic remarks on the stage where he would stand to become the President of the United States. The reason behind my involvement in electoral politics is to take a stance against Trumpian fascism. My stance against Trump allied me with the Democratic Party, an organization which leveraged the Muslim community’s outrage towards Trump’s ‘Muslim Ban’ to win back the Oval Office. Imagine witnessing that very same political party, every year, mourn three thousand innocent lives lost on September 11, 2001, but shrug its shoulders when it comes to mourning hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians killed in the War on Terror in Afghanistan and Iraq.

President Obama’s victory in November 2008 was the dawn of a new era. It ignited hope in Muslims and various communities of color. The victory of the first-ever, African-American man to become President of the United States was monumental. Muslims perhaps resonated with President Obama because of his name and ancestry. Barack is of Arabic origin and means “blessed”. His middle name, Hussein, is an Arabic name and means “handsome”. Although President Obama is a Protestant Christian, his grandparents were Kenyan Muslims. President Obama’s multicultural and multi-religious identity is what may have given Muslims the courage to participate in what they have always known as a country that was established through the establishment of settler colonies. It is that courage that encouraged Muslims to become politically and civically engaged in the democratic process of American politics after Donald Trump became President…. and the Democrats took it all for granted.

The Muslim Vote: Numbers & Sentiments

According to Emgage, nearly 1.1 million Muslims came out to vote in the 2020 presidential election. That means, almost 31% of the entire U.S. Muslim population came out to vote in 2020, taking into account Pew Research Center’s estimate of 3.45 million Muslims living in the United States. Per Emgage, The 1.1 million Muslims who voted account for 71% of registered voters who are Muslims. This means there are approximately 1.5 million registered voters who identify as Muslims. According to the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding (ISPU), 11% of Muslims who are registered to vote identify as Republicans, 41% identify as Democrats, and 42% identify as Independents. Historically, Muslim voter turnout has always been low compared to other religious communities in the United States. According to a study by ISPU, only 57% of the registered Muslims come out to vote. The same study claims that the two top reasons for Muslims to opt out of voting in 2016 were that either no one represented their priorities or that the voters felt that their votes would not make a difference. The only exception to all of this was when President Biden addressed the priorities of America’s Muslim population in 2020, when he promised them that their votes would make a difference. During this time, based on ‘The Million Muslim Votes Campaign Voter Turnout Report’, Emgage mobilized to bring out a Muslim voter turnout of 1.1 million voters and increased Muslim voter registration by 27%.

 In my experience as a political consultant and strategist, I’ve encountered three types of voters. One type always votes because it’s the American thing to do. The second type is the hype voters. They only vote when a candidate can excite them to vote. The third type is the tired voters. After years of voting, they feel as though no one truly represents them, which results in them quitting to vote eventually. Based on my understanding of the field, tired voters usually come from the type that always voted, but the hype voters can easily lose interest after just a few election cycles. The question here is that President Biden was able to excite the masses but can he excite the same masses again in 2024? The Council on American-Islamic Relations estimates that 69% of the Muslim votes were for President Biden because they wanted to defeat Trump (Hooper).  Trump involuntarily served as the boogeyman the Democrats needed and used to win the Muslim vote in 2020. In 2024, there are no boogeymen to defeat because Muslims, Arabs and those perceived to be Muslims are still victims of the very hate crimes that occurred when Trump was President. Nada Al-Hanooti, the Michigan executive director of Emgage, echoes similar sentiments. In an article published by the New York Times, she mentioned, “the truth is that we are experiencing the same Islamophobic rhetoric right now coming from the Biden administration.” She also added that Muslims “don’t feel safe, they don’t feel heard and they don’t feel seen” (Bosman and Londoño).There were 15 battleground states in 2020: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Colorado, Virginia, and Wisconsin. President Biden received 306 electoral college votes, while Trump received 232 electoral college votes.

There are about 206,000 Muslim voters in Michigan. President Biden won Michigan by 154,000 votes. According to Emgage’s report, 145,620 Muslims voted in Michigan during the presidential general election. If the average of 69% Muslim votes for Biden is considered here then about 100,500 Muslims voted for President Biden in 2020. According to the Arab American Institute, President Biden’s approval rating among Arabs fell by 42% amid his refusal to call for a ceasefire. Overall disapproval rating in America has fallen by 45%. Taking both these numbers into account, President Biden may lose more than 105,000 votes  in the state of Michigan which will leave 49,000 votes left for the republican candidate to topple. 

Reuters reports that Trump’s favorability among Arabs not only increased but this is the first time the majority of Arab Americans do not identify as Democrats (Shalal). With all of this factored in, Michigan poses to be a competitive swing state in the 2024 presidential election. Losing Michigan will cost him 15 electoral college votes. Similar calculations can be made for Pennsylvania and Georgia. President Biden won Pennsylvania by 80,000 votes in 2020. He won Georgia by a mere 12,000 votes. According to data provided by Emgage, approximately 125,000 Muslims voted in Pennsylvania in 2020, and Georgia’s Muslim voter turnout increased from 36,819 in 2016 to 61,148 in 2020. President Biden will lose Georgia in 2024 if that number drops back to 36,819. This will cause him to lose 16 electoral college votes from Georgia. Additionally, losing Pennsylvania would cost President Biden 19 electoral college votes. Another critical state that should be mentioned is Arizona. NBC News reports that Biden won Arizona, which carries 11 electoral college votes,  by a mere 10,500 votes and there are 110,000 Muslims estimated to be residing in the state including those who aren’t old enough to vote or aren’t citizens (Seitz-Wald & Korecki).

As reported by the New York Times, Sam Baydoun, commissioner in Michigan’s Wayne County said, “The pulse of the community is overwhelmingly not supportive of Biden now. They feel betrayed” (Bosman and Londoño). Muslim and Arab leaders simply do not have faith in President Biden to tell their congregation, constituents, and supporters to vote for President Biden in 2024. Should this trend continue, in total, Trump or DeSantis, whoever the Republican nominee is, will have a minimum total of 284 electoral college votes, while President Biden will receive a maximum total of 254. 270 electoral college votes are required for a candidate to win. This calculation does not even include the sentiments of the growing progressive wing of the American electorate who may neither be Muslims nor Arab. It’s quite noticeable that President Biden NEEDS the Muslim vote to win. President Biden NEEDS to understand that he cannot avoid accountability by secretly meeting with Muslim leaders. The National Strategy to Counter Islamophobia is a slap on the faces of Muslims living in the United States as the root of the issue comes from how the Middle East has been portrayed by this administration and the ones that preceded it. The White House released a statement on November 1, 2023, announcing that President Biden is “unequivocal” that “there is no place for hate in America against anyone.” The statement also reads, “We look forward to continuing our work with community leaders, advocates, members of Congress, and more to develop the strategy – which will be a joint effort led by the Domestic Policy Council and the National Security Council – and counter the scourge of Islamophobia and hate in all its forms.” The only problem with this statement is that community leaders and advocates have been demanding a ceasefire, and members of Congress have been urging President Biden to call for a ceasefire through a resolution introduced by Rep. Cori Bush. Council on American-Islamic Relations also shares the same sentiments. In a press release, CAIR Deputy Director Edward Ahmed Mitchel said, “The first and most important step President Biden must take to combat surging Islamophobia is the step that American Muslim leaders and organizations have repeatedly called on him to take: demand a ceasefire in Gaza.” 

Muslims typically care about quality of life, jobs, security, security, and security. However, after 9/11, ensuring that we are protected from Islamophobia became our top priority. Donald Trump made it clear during his campaign that Muslims would not be safe during his presidency. President Joe Biden made it clear through his stances in the Middle East this last month that Muslims would not be safe during his presidency either. To be honest, Muslims weren’t safe during either party’s reign. Therefore, an average Muslim voter simply will not want to vote after watching President Biden show his back to the very community that helped him secure his victory in 2020 (Seitz-Wald & Korecki). For some reason, the President Biden camp believes that Muslims and Arabs will simply forget and forgive in 2024. But his camp can rest assured that while our parents kept their heads down to survive in the 90s and early 2000s so that we could live life to the fullest in the 2020s, it doesn’t mean we will keep our heads down. The National Muslim Democratic Council has sent an open letter to the White House demanding an immediate ceasefire followed by an ultimatum stating, “It has become evident that our voices are being ignored but our votes will not be.” 

Our parents made sure we received an education, and that’s what made us aware of domestic and foreign policy. More importantly, we care about it all in its entirety as far as our safety is concerned at home and abroad. Our parents also came to America during a time when the Civil Rights Act of 1964 created a pathway for POC immigrants to be “American”. As a result, by default and as history has shown, they’ll believe that the Democratic Party is their savior. But for young Muslims, being a token for Model America is the least of our concerns because we want our dignity to be acknowledged for who we are rather than for who the colonialist ideology of the American Dream wants us to be. It’s important to mention that Muslims are the youngest faith group in America, with one-third under the age of 30, according to the American Psychiatric Association. This means we can now also educate our parents on who to vote for, and it definitely won’t be for the lesser of two evils. Why bring a folding chair to the table of power when we can bring in a whole table with our standard of equality to “The Room Where It Happens”? Sometimes it seems that not participating is also a way of participating because it will reset the fact that the Muslim vote needs to be earned, not demanded. It must be earned by showing the work rather than by promising it.

Conclusion: All Politics is Local

The 2024 presidential election will have a trickle-down effect on local elections as well. Establishment politicians and elected officials are slowly retiring. Two City Council districts in New York City are represented by representatives who do not represent what the neighborhood will look like in 10 years: the 24^th and 32^nd City Council Districts. There’s at least one State Assembly District in Queens, NY, that is represented by someone who probably won’t win in six more years due to rapid demographic changes in the 24^th Assembly District. In these districts, the Bengali, Sikh, and Indo-Caribbean communities are increasing at a fast pace (Venugopal). All three of these communities sacrificed themselves for liberation from the British. They know all too well what genocide, starvation, the battlefield, and forced migration look like. These communities are the ones that suffered the most in the aftermath of 9/11, during World War II, and the 200 years of British reign on the Indian Subcontinent. That is why these communities will be taking a deep dive into the candidates who run to represent them, from their campaign finances to their tweets. They recognize all too well if a candidate wishes to serve or if a candidate feels entitled to hold a position of power. In my opinion, these marginalized communities will vote for their own based on alignment of value, and that is important for candidates to recognize as carpetbagging is not a viable winning strategy anymore. At the same time, we must recognize that we cannot act as standalone communities. An alliance must be achieved between the larger Muslim community, Sikh community, Arabs, Bangladeshi, Black American, and Indo-Caribbean communities to be able to collectively recognize and identify candidates fit to represent our needs.

This is The Democratic Deception. The Democrats know that Muslims and immigrants are swing voters, and they also know that they need the Muslim and immigrant vote. But they use the 9/11 tragedy to make us believe that we need them. This doesn’t mean that The Republican Deception doesn’t exist. The Republican Deception is that they use the 9/11 tragedy to create a boogeyman for the masses to fear. The American political system will always need a boogeyman. The fact of the matter is that the only way for us to truly gain power is by understanding that neither of the parties will truly ensure our safety unless we stop giving them our trust so easily because we refuse to be the Republican’s Boogeyman and the Democrat’s sympathy clown.

References:

“2023 Ceasefire Ultimatum.” Muslimdems, www.muslimdems.org/2023_ceasefire_ultimatum.

AAI. “Arab Americans Special Poll: Domestic Implications of the Most Recent Outbreak of Violence in Palestine/Israel.” Arab American Institute, 1 Nov. 2023, http://www.aaiusa.org/library/arab-americans-special-poll-domestic-implications-of-the-most-recent-outbreak-of-violence-in-palestineisrael. Accessed 12 Nov. 2023. 

Anderson, Brooke. “How Biden’s Support for Israel Could Cost Him Re-Election.” The New Arab, http://www.newarab.com/analysis/how-bidens-support-israel-could-cost-him-re-election?amp. Accessed 27 Dec. 2023. 

Bosman, Julie, and Ernesto Londoño. “In Michigan, Muslim and Arab American Voters Reconsider Support for Biden.” The New York Times, 28 Oct. 2023, www.nytimes.com/2023/10/28/us/michigan-democrats-biden-palestinian.html.

“CAIR Says White House Strategy to Combat Surging Islamophobia Must Begin with Demanding Ceasefire in Gaza.” CAIR, CAIR, 2 Nov. 2023, www.cair.com/press_releases/cair-says-white-house-strategy-to-combat-surging-islamophobia-must-begin-with-demanding-ceasefire-in-gaza/.

“H.Res.786 – 118th Congress (2023-2024): Calling for an immediate deescalation and cease-fire in Israel and occupied Palestine.” Congress.gov, Library of Congress, 25 October 2023, https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-resolution/786.

Hooper, Ibrahim. “Breaking News: Cair Exit Poll Shows American Muslims Vote in Record Numbers, 69% Voted for Biden.” CAIR, The Council on American-Islamic Relations, 4 Nov. 2020, www.cair.com/press_releases/breaking-news-cair-exit-poll-shows-american-muslims-vote-in-record-numbers-69-voted-for-biden/.

Madhani, Aamer. “Muslim Mayor Blocked from White House Eid Celebration.” AP News, 2 May 2023, https://apnews.com/article/new-jersey-mayor-white-house-eid-8e67495af3cd982a6560d1121a29e8ba. 

Manchester, Julia. “Biden, Trump Tied in Michigan Ahead of 2024 Election: Poll.” The Hill, 4 Aug. 2023, thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4136457-biden-trump-tied-in-michigan-ahead-of-2024-election-poll/amp/.

“The Million Muslim Votes Campaign Voter Turnout Report – Emgageusa.” Emgage USA, emgageusa.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Emgage-ImpactReport-2020-v2.4-lr-1.pdf.

Mohamed, Besheer. “New Estimates Show U.S. Muslim Population Continues to Grow.” Pew Research Center, 3 Jan. 2018, www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2018/01/03/new-estimates-show-u-s-muslim-population-continues-to-grow/. Accessed 11 Nov. 2023. 

“PRESSLEY JOINS COLLEAGUES ON RESOLUTION CALLING FOR IMMEDIATE CEASEFIRE.” Congresswoman Ayanna Pressley, House of Representative, 16 Oct. 2023, pressley.house.gov/2023/10/16/pressley-joins-colleagues-on-resolution-calling-for-immediate-ceasefire/.

Seitz-Wald, Alex, and Natasha Korecki. “Swing-State Muslim Americans Threaten to Vote against Biden.” NBCNews.Com, NBCUniversal News Group, 2023, www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna122870.

Shalal, Andrea. “Arab American Support for Biden, Democrats Plummets over Israel, Poll Shows.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 31 Oct. 2023, www.reuters.com/world/us/arab-american-support-biden-democrats-plummets-over-israel-poll-2023-10-31/.

“Statement from White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on President Biden’s Establishment of First-Ever National Strategy to Counter Islamophobia.” Whitehouse.Gov, White House, 1 Nov. 2023, www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/11/01/statement-from-white-house-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-on-president-bidens-establishment-of-first-ever-national-strategy-to-counter-islamophobia/.

“Understanding the American Muslim Voter – Ispu.Org.” Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, www.ispu.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/AMP-Infographic-Voting-8.5×11-v3.pdf?x46312.

Voa. “American Muslims Hope Obama Will Encourage Tolerance, Respect for Rule of Law  .” VOA, Voice of America, 27 Oct. 2009, http://www.voanews.com/amp/a-13-2008-12-10-voa37-66737862/561862.html.

Venugopal, Arun. “South Asians in Queens Say Proposed Redistricting Map Ignores Them.” Gothamist, 13 Sept. 2022, gothamist.com/news/south-asians-in-queens-say-redistricting-map-ignores-them#:~:text=South%20Asians%20are%20among%20the,or%204%25%20of%20the%20population.